Anyone here got the Chinese virus? - Page 3 - Mitsubishi Lancer Register Forum
 
 

Go Back   Mitsubishi Lancer Register Forum > General Stuff > Non-Lancer Chat

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 18-03-2020, 14:22   #31
Jakeh
Senior User
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SE something
Car: 9 Wagon
Posts: 896
The Imperial College paper which outlines why the belated change in strategy from mitigate to suppress revealed that their mitigation plan (using the incorrect ICU demand ratio for viral pneumonia) was projected to result in 250k dead in UK and 1m+ in the US, with all patients fully treated.

The flaws they corrected in the modelling after being pressured into publishing details (because so contrary to the rest of the world's assessments and modelling, and real life experience in Wuhan and Lombardy) revealed that they had fatally overestimated the ability to mitigate deaths down to "just" the 250k thought acceptable. Instead, the NHS's surge capacity was projected to be overwhelmed 8x over.

The effect of overwhelming ICU capacity in Wuhan and Lombardy has been to increase the death rate from around 1% of confirmed cases to around 6%. They do not state this in their paper, but as a consequence their revised modelling would have projected around 1.5m deaths from their (fatally flawed) mitigate strategy.

They are now playing catch up with a suppression strategy after having allowed the initial spread more or less unchecked because the seeding of infection was not objectionable under a mitigate strategy until the NHS capacity was in range of being exhausted.

No room for YouTube bull****ers. Careless epidemiologists are bad enough.

Last edited by Jakeh; 18-03-2020 at 14:25..
Jakeh is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Jakeh For This Useful Post:
gaz007 (18-03-2020), Hank79 (18-03-2020), VR-4Squid (26-03-2020)
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 18-03-2020, 14:25   #32
jdm4life
Senior User
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,678
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aidy View Post
And none for covid-19. Yep, covid really isn't anything we need to worry about. Top logic.

Nobody here has made the comparison that you are implying.




**** the Chinese and their ****hole country.

Disprove that statement.
__________________
**** your signature

Last edited by jdm4life; 18-03-2020 at 14:54..
jdm4life is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-03-2020, 14:55   #33
Aidy
Senior User
 
Aidy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Garden of England (by the compost heap)
Car: Yellow EVO X
My Car
Posts: 38,607
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdm4life View Post
Nobody here has made the comparison that you are implying.
Except they literally are. They are comparing stats of a novel virus that has not yet reached its maximum penetration with one that is already endemic.
Aidy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-03-2020, 14:58   #34
kikiturbo
Senior User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Croatia
Car: EVO 9 GSR
My Car
Posts: 2,747
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aidy View Post
And none for covid-19. Yep, covid really isn't anything we need to worry about. Top logic.
I really do not understand your logic or your conclusion that I said that covid is nothing to worry about, as I never ever said anything similar. I merely stated the death tool from flu (all flu strains) in the US in the past flu season, and that is for an illness that we are somewhat immune to and have a vaccine. Of course, flu vaccine is somewhat limited and targeted at specific strains. If anything this puts emphasis on what a dangerous illness common flu can be..
kikiturbo is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to kikiturbo For This Useful Post:
Clivew (22-03-2020), gaz007 (18-03-2020), jdm4life (19-03-2020)
Old 18-03-2020, 16:15   #35
Aidy
Senior User
 
Aidy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Garden of England (by the compost heap)
Car: Yellow EVO X
My Car
Posts: 38,607
Quote:
Originally Posted by kikiturbo View Post
I really do not understand your logic or your conclusion that I said that covid is nothing to worry about
Nothing to worry about was obviously facetious, but by disingenuously comparing flu cases to covid it does seem to be downplaying the severity or risk.
Aidy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-03-2020, 21:32   #36
Tyson1991
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Peak District
Posts: 285
Quote:
Originally Posted by ant1 View Post
Yes I have owned one back in the day and it was ****! Still want one though
What did you think was **** about the 400 Ant?
Tyson1991 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-03-2020, 23:50   #37
gaz007
Senior User
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: lake district
Car: evo 6 tme ,gems ecu ,mapped by steve simpson,,380bhp 359lb ft t apexi ebc,
My Car
Posts: 1,952
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aidy View Post
Except they literally are. They are comparing stats of a novel virus that has not yet reached its maximum penetration with one that is already endemic.
Yes they are ,well the idiots are anyway.The UK and the World have forgotten what the Spanish Flu did in 1918.The people in the know have known for years that a bug like Covid 19 would do this or even worse and most likely have not been listened to.The UK should have had 100k ventilators in moth balls ready to go for this scenario not the most advanced just a basic emergency unit.This is just one thing that should have been done to be ready along with 100k temp beds .
We are now in the position of this very serious virus knocking on our door and do not be thinking this is nothing because we seriously could be looking at 2 million deaths in the UK .The reason so many could die is because we only have 5000 ventilators which is pathetic.China may seem ok but no this virus is still there and it is a long way from finished .Let's hope a vaccine is found that works soon.
__________________
shaken but not much
gaz007 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to gaz007 For This Useful Post:
jdm4life (09-04-2020)
Old 19-03-2020, 00:14   #38
Aidy
Senior User
 
Aidy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Garden of England (by the compost heap)
Car: Yellow EVO X
My Car
Posts: 38,607
Quote:
Originally Posted by gaz007 View Post
The UK and the World have forgotten what the Spanish Flu did in 1918.
You mean that other virus that probably originated in China?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gaz007 View Post
The people in the know have known for years that a bug like Covid 19 would do this or even worse and most likely have not been listened to.The UK should have had 100k ventilators in moth balls ready to go for this scenario not the most advanced just a basic emergency unit.
The news today said that supermarkets were implementing rationing, that "lessons learned" from SARS are being put in place, and on top of that the Brexit contingency plans are being used too.

Yet the shelves where I live are still empty.

What's interesting to me is that we have effectively fast-forwarded into the effects of left-wing progressive policies. It's like Corbyn won the election and we've been in a coma for ten years. Empty shelves, queues, lack of work and people losing their jobs, massive investments coming from the government to make up the short fall (which can't last long before the whole country collapses), government stepping into the private rental market, government taking more control over the people and private industry, putting people under curfew, telling private businesses to shut down.

We are living under Communism right now.

And what is the solution every country is scrabbling to implement to solve this? Nationalism. Shut the borders, cancel globalism, stop the flow of people, look after your own before you take the needy from others.

But of course two weeks after the whole crisis is over the kids will be back to demanding Communism, the left will be demanding open borders, they'll burn down the synagogues at six o'clock and we'll all go along like before.
Aidy is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to Aidy For This Useful Post:
ant1 (19-03-2020), evo5d (19-03-2020), gaz007 (19-03-2020), jdm4life (09-04-2020), Madmac (19-03-2020), RSgeoff (19-03-2020)
Old 19-03-2020, 00:32   #39
gaz007
Senior User
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: lake district
Car: evo 6 tme ,gems ecu ,mapped by steve simpson,,380bhp 359lb ft t apexi ebc,
My Car
Posts: 1,952
In the Lakes its business as usual ,just tonight customers in my shop were saying the Restaurants are busy and the pubs ,coffee shops,cafes .I'm busier than last year 2.5times busier today than same day last year .The customers from Lincolnshire were saying it's looking a lot more relaxed in the Lakes area .
I said I know it's crazy because I'm not taking any chances .I closed my eating in section 2 weeks a go and I'm only doing take away food until further notice .Why would you sit in a coffee shop ? I'm getting people still wondering why my eating in side is closed .Muppets.
__________________
shaken but not much
gaz007 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to gaz007 For This Useful Post:
jdm4life (19-03-2020)
Old 19-03-2020, 09:22   #40
TrickyDick
Very Senior User
 
TrickyDick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Surrey
Car: VII FQ-300x2
Posts: 925
Don't often agree with Aidy but he's hit the nail on the head in post 38.

Having just returned from Spain I'm pleased to see the more measured approach being taken here based on the developing data. However it will only work if the majority take notice of the advice, better that than police and army out on the streets enforcing more draconian measures!
TrickyDick is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to TrickyDick For This Useful Post:
gaz007 (19-03-2020), jdm4life (09-04-2020)
Old 19-03-2020, 09:42   #41
babou88
Senior User
 
babou88's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: FRANCE
Car: TME RS
My Car
Posts: 226


(joking)

I'm in France, in my house with my lady and 2 young lads since 16 march, and it's not very cool!

"they" (governement, media) said us one month ago : it's OK, it's less than a flu, all is ok,...

and after that (15 days) , it's a serious thing!

why ? because even is it's not very mortal, there is a huge need of ventilators for the people infected,

In France , if you don't change your life (go out, see people,...) , the people infected will be over the number of ventilators , and doctors will need to make a choice : OK , you're 80 old, but there is a young lad (10 years) who need also a ventilator, so , which one we will save?

No need to panic, but take care, don't do stupid thing!

(sorry for bad english)

Bastien
babou88 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to babou88 For This Useful Post:
evo5d (19-03-2020), fozz57 (19-03-2020), gaz007 (19-03-2020), kikiturbo (19-03-2020), Mita (19-03-2020), TrickyDick (19-03-2020)
Old 19-03-2020, 11:15   #42
Mita
Senior User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 9,609
Well I have it. Have done last few days. In isolation for 2 weeks.

Symptoms for me are very dry cough, chest pains and quite a horrible amount of shortness of breath. I’m 42 and in good health, Ex bodybuilder but still a gym goer.

Wouldn’t recommend it, and it certainly isn’t ideal for the elderly (my Dad is 82 with COPD and has had cancer 3 times)

How did I catch it? God knows, I washed my hands like crazy, anti bac’d etc etc

Good luck everyone
Mita is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 19 Users Say Thank You to Mita For This Useful Post:
Aidy (19-03-2020), Christopher (20-03-2020), Clivew (22-03-2020), dreMR (19-03-2020), Evo Ali (21-03-2020), evo5d (19-03-2020), Evomentalist (21-03-2020), gaz007 (19-03-2020), Hank79 (19-03-2020), jdm4life (19-03-2020), kikiturbo (19-03-2020), Lucky Nv (19-03-2020), Madmac (19-03-2020), ondafly (20-03-2020), Realbadman (19-03-2020), RichW (20-03-2020), RSgeoff (19-03-2020), Saint Matt (21-03-2020), will2 (21-05-2020)
Old 19-03-2020, 11:45   #43
Baileyk
Senior User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 592
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aidy View Post

We are living under Communism right now.


But of course two weeks after the whole crisis is over the kids will be back to demanding Communism, the left will be demanding open borders, they'll burn down the synagogues at six o'clock and we'll all go along like before.
Damn you rumbled our cunning plan, you clever boy
Baileyk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19-03-2020, 12:15   #44
Hank79
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Downunder
Car: TME SPC, Lotus Exige 380, R34 GTR NUR, WRX STi version 5, RX7 Spirit R type A
Posts: 375
I hope your ok mate👍


Quote:
Originally Posted by Mita View Post
Well I have it. Have done last few days. In isolation for 2 weeks.

Symptoms for me are very dry cough, chest pains and quite a horrible amount of shortness of breath. Iím 42 and in good health, Ex bodybuilder but still a gym goer.

Wouldnít recommend it, and it certainly isnít ideal for the elderly (my Dad is 82 with COPD and has had cancer 3 times)

How did I catch it? God knows, I washed my hands like crazy, anti bacíd etc etc

Good luck everyone
Hank79 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Hank79 For This Useful Post:
evo5d (19-03-2020), Lucky Nv (19-03-2020), Mita (19-03-2020), Realbadman (19-03-2020)
Old 19-03-2020, 12:18   #45
ant1
Senior User
 
ant1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: At you mums
Car: Evo TME RS
My Car
Posts: 11,472
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mita View Post
Well I have it. Have done last few days. In isolation for 2 weeks.

Symptoms for me are very dry cough, chest pains and quite a horrible amount of shortness of breath. Iím 42 and in good health, Ex bodybuilder but still a gym goer.

Wouldnít recommend it, and it certainly isnít ideal for the elderly (my Dad is 82 with COPD and has had cancer 3 times)

How did I catch it? God knows, I washed my hands like crazy, anti bacíd etc etc

Good luck everyone
Poor ****er, hope it clears soon.
ant1 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to ant1 For This Useful Post:
Aidy (19-03-2020), Lucky Nv (19-03-2020), Mita (19-03-2020)
Mitsubishi Lancer Register
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



All times are GMT. The time now is 21:15.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.