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2020 Recession

13K views 141 replies 29 participants last post by  Arronevo8 
#1 ·
Many will have been hit hard already but experts on the matter seem to believe the worst is yet to come. I must admit - the writing on the wall doesn't look great.

How has it affected you thus far?

How bad do you think it will get?

What have you being doing to...

?
 
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#2 ·
I’ll be honest I am a bit worried about it, I’ve taken a second job short term so I can save some extra cash just in case and I’ve held off getting the evo forged in case I need the cash elsewhere. I’m an alarm engineer and it’s a bit quiet at the moment as no one wants an alarm if they’re not leaving the house and they don’t want people around their house servicing alarms either.
 
#7 ·
Lost about half my main income early on in lockdown, I wont replace that income stream quickly. Wasnt entitled to furlough or self employed help either. If the scale of recession I think will come does come, I suspect my main business will suffer hugely. Fortunately for me im in a more secure position now than if this had all happened 10 years ago, and im ready for a change in direction anyway, so as much as I worry about the next few years financially for a lot of reasons, im also looking forward to doing something (dont know what yet) different from what i've done for the last 20 odd years

Stu
 
#8 · (Edited)
My earlier post was a little tongue-in-cheek.

Made a prediction at the end on 2017 that we would be fairly fůćkěd by the end of 2019 (obviously I had no idea about COVID-19) but the way the US economy and other economies (Germany to name but 1) were going it looked obvious.

Will2 on here knows me well and we spoke about this before.
The way things are is unsustainable and when looking at recession cycles we are due a big one.

I am very fortunate that the work I do and the company I work for is in even higher demand as a result of COVID.
Our head office is US based and I would travel there maybe 3 times a year and was last there at the end of February, literally arrived back the start of March just as everything was locking down. Now our US offices are still in full 'shelter in place' mode.

Again, being very fortunate, I get shares that vest every 2 months at this stage and they are worth on near $200 a share at the moment which every 2 months I get between 40 and 60, next year that will increase to approx 120/130. I have been buying crypto currencies as well as clearing all debts and putting money aside.

I really feel for those that are facing into this next 3-5 years (most of my family are in this boat, family business was closed since March and as Stu said they are not entitled to governmental support)
 
#9 ·
My earlier post was a little tongue-in-cheek.

Made a prediction at the end on 2017 that we would be fairly fůćkěd by the end of 2019 (obviously I had no idea about COVID-19) but the way the US economy and other economies (Germany to name but 1) were going it looked obvious.

Will2 on here knows me well and we spoke about this before.
The way things are is unsustainable and when looking at recession cycles we are due a big one.

I am very fortunate that the work I do and the company I work for is in even higher demand as a result of COVID.
Our head office is US based and I would travel there maybe 3 times a year and was last there at the end of February, literally arrived back the start of March just as everything was locking down. Now our US offices are still in full 'shelter in place' mode.

Again, being very fortunate, I get shares that vest every 2 months at this stage and they are worth on near $200 a share at the moment which every 2 months I get between 40 and 60, next year that will increase to approx 120/130. I have been buying crypto currencies as well as clearing all debts and putting money aside.

I really feel for those that are facing into this next 3-5 years (most of my family are in this boat, family business was closed since March and as Stu said they are not entitled to governmental support)
Funny you say that, friends of mine would tell you I've been banging on for several years, that a big recession was coming, 2019/20. Again I couldn't have predicted Covid, but I kept saying we are 1 big shock away from the house of cards tumbling. I also predicted if we voted Brexit, we would go into recession first, rest of the Eu, and the world, later, looks like I got that bit wrong :lol: Fortunately I trusted my gut, and spent the last several years making myself more financially secure rather than trying to expand as I had done previously

I feel really sorry for those trying to start out over the next few years, cant help but feel for most there wont be many chances.

I was doing my recording the other day for the last 6 months invoices and receipts, first quarter of this year, as normal 40 to 50 receipts for my spending per month (I am a small 1 man band business), next (covid) quarter, 6, 7 maybe 8 spending receipts per month max, as I pull back spending due to loss of income. If other peoples spending continues to follow my spending, it doesn't bode well for the economy

Stu
 
#10 ·
Felt this was coming for long while ( again not knowing this scamdemic being the vehicle to carry the great reset )
The bankster bailout of circa 64 billion in my realm has snowballed to a growing debt ,circa 230+ billion now ...irrepayable debt :wallbang:
Wipe out the middle class afoot ...communism will save us :shake:
personally i got lucky only off work for 2.5 weeks ,had 2 Hospital jobs that were fastracked with the great fear mongering ....yet the future is very shaky ,as always ....STOCK UP ON BEANS !
 
#12 ·
I was expecting the high streets to be busier since retail reopened but Boris did too good a job at the fear factor rhetoric which is still keeping people at home. Looks like consumer spending is going to take a very long time to recover. I'm also worried that we will permanently loose many pubs and restaurants especially as furlough comes to an end when the real effects on small businesses will be revealed ... and then to help further we have BREXIT !
 
#13 ·
I think thats only half of the reason. I think also lockdown broke peoples spending routine, and people realised just how much money they spent on stuff they didnt need to spend on. Add that with talk of a big recession, I suspect people are living more frugally

Stu
 
#16 ·
My friend lives in Chicago and they buy everything on credit and never carry cash, like all the rest off their friends and have loans on everything. The amount off waste as they have a lock up full off year old stuff and a 3year old motor bike that's worth $5000 and instead off part ex just buy new on plastic, no wonder America's debt is 27 trillion, ok they earn good money in finance :blah: but there is bubble and its going to burst as covid19 is causing bankruptcy in big food chains like Wendy's Hertz etc 24 small banks in 2020.
 
#24 ·
American banks today have closed 70 million credit card accounts across the USA and cards have had credit limits lowered. Tick Tock! Have you noticed all these Car adds for electric cars and deals, Ford have major stock piles and no buyers, VW are saying the same. Money coming into the American housing market from foreign invester is lower than 2008. American silver buying is up 8% as paper money is no good if devalued.
 
#28 ·
Very true Aidy.

Wonder where the teachers and FedEx drivers in their huge houses will be in 12/18 months, probably the same place they were in 2008/2009/2010, in tent cities or even better yet, slab city.

The US is completely based on debt and debt is the only form of control they have over the masses.

From personal experience seeing 20-somethings in San Francisco (well, across California) on $100k qualifying for social assistance due to the cost of living. $100k a year with huge debt and not being able to afford to buy a house? Has been like that for the past 4/5 years.

Cannot be sustainable.
 
#31 ·
The US is completely based on debt and debt is the only form of control they have over the masses.
The average debt in the UK is £60,000, in the USA it is £77,000. However they get paid more than us, pay less taxes than us, pay next to nothing for petrol, and have a standard of living far beyond ours with far bigger\better houses\cars, cheaper eating out etc. Probably worth it for an extra 11k of debt?
 
#34 · (Edited)
I bet you dont pay for a licence to watch tv.

The United Kingdom is a socialist utopia, which neans you are taxed at every opportunity.
We have a TV licence which is €160/yr but unlike the BBC, RTE also have advertising revenue and there are LOTS of ads as well as basically being the propaganda wing of the elites government.

In the US there is no TV licence but there is Public Access TV stations..

Oh, and yes, I do not pay a TV licence
 
#45 ·
I remember 2008 divorced filed for Bankruptcy working like a slave racing motocross using credit, as on good money and credit cards back then where27% what a rip off and then it all went to ****. Lost everything but just before I filed for Bankruptcy bought a new Yamaha R1 and hid it and worked for cash valeting cars and run around for two years on R1 no insurance etc flat payed for by benefits :blah: but learned its all a house off cards and can fail any time and savings is crap the same a insurance on loans as its all a money maker as didn't get a penny. People think life is one long Enya song with a smile :crackup: its not. Health and that's it simples :mhihi:
 
#47 ·
The big problem for our economy that I see coming from all of this is the hugely increased imbalance of the public\private sector. In any economic situation there are the haves and the have-nots...right now who isn't affected by the current situation at all? Anyone that works for the government, the unemployed, people who are in "key" roles are far less affected. Then we have the majority of the private sector that is being destroyed. The result of that is a growth in unemployment (ergo more strain on public finances) and a reduction in the taxes being paid (more strain on the public finances). So the public sector spending is ballooning while the private sector is massively shrinking, and the public sector needs the private sector to supply all of the money is uses.

Sure things are "opening up", but are they? Before COVID-1984 you ran a restaurant with ten tables and you balanced the books such that if you have X covers you at least broke even and Y would put you in the black. The government comes a long and shuts you down for months but you still have rates and taxes to pay, maybe rent. Maybe you had to fire staff. You can now open up (thank you massah) but with only four tables due to social distancing, all of which are booked out on Saturday night but two are no-shows. Now you're running a business based on 10 tables with only two. The other day I was going to get a newspaper and a bottle of pop, there was a newsagent nearby but there was a queue outside, all these signs, restrictions and I actually thought; "I just can't be bothered". Now we all have to wear masks in shops how many more are just going to not be bothered to make minor purchases?

This is a situation that can't maintain itself for very long at all. What's particularly insidious in this specific "recession" scenario is that some companies and people obviously are benefitting...again you get this in any situation; some benefit, some lose. Currently the likes of Amazon, people who do food delivery etc are all raking it in, then you have the government for who the perfect situation is a country living in fear as it lets them pass any laws they want and restrict and remove any freedoms they want. So despite this situation getting closer and closer to destroying the entire economy, there are some actors who are selfishly promoting it. "The new normal" - f*** that phrase and f*** anyone who says it. The people promoting "the new normal" are pretending to be focussing on the public good but they're not, they're really just interested in the short-term financial gain this gives their companies without a care that it is a completely untenable situation, they're just making hay while the world burns.

Beyond the financial ramifications this extended lockdown and economic collapse is also wreaking havoc with people's mental health and their physical health. People who have thrived on all the benefits of the gym and regular exercise are now sat at home on their sofas drinking £4.99 bottles of wine, getting further from laughing at Jeremy Kyle and closer to appearing on it. A lot of people are being physically and mentally broken by this and that is also going to take time to recover.

We'll know what those in power really want when\if a vaccine comes along and we see how keen the government is to distribute it, to see who gets it. Will we start to see the left-wing media start to run their smear campaigns linking it with cancer\autism\dementia, not outright telling people not to take it but planting the seed for "Facebook moms" to run with. They brought back measles so can damn well bring this back too.

The final irony in all of this is that developing countries that have no way of mass-controlling their people are simply going to get on with it, get herd immunity and live their lives exactly as before, the old normal, while us in "developed" countries just accept that living in fear is the new normal with the government's boot pushing down on us harder and harder until none of us can breathe.
 
#49 ·
The big problem for our economy that I see coming from all of this is the hugely increased imbalance of the public\private sector. In any economic situation there are the haves and the have-nots...right now who isn't affected by the current situation at all? Anyone that works for the government, the unemployed, people who are in "key" roles are far less affected. Then we have the majority of the private sector that is being destroyed. The result of that is a growth in unemployment (ergo more strain on public finances) and a reduction in the taxes being paid (more strain on the public finances). So the public sector spending is ballooning while the private sector is massively shrinking, and the public sector needs the private sector to supply all of the money is uses.

Sure things are "opening up", but are they? Before COVID-1984 you ran a restaurant with ten tables and you balanced the books such that if you have X covers you at least broke even and Y would put you in the black. The government comes a long and shuts you down for months but you still have rates and taxes to pay, maybe rent. Maybe you had to fire staff. You can now open up (thank you massah) but with only four tables due to social distancing, all of which are booked out on Saturday night but two are no-shows. Now you're running a business based on 10 tables with only two. The other day I was going to get a newspaper and a bottle of pop, there was a newsagent nearby but there was a queue outside, all these signs, restrictions and I actually thought; "I just can't be bothered". Now we all have to wear masks in shops how many more are just going to not be bothered to make minor purchases?

This is a situation that can't maintain itself for very long at all. What's particularly insidious in this specific "recession" scenario is that some companies and people obviously are benefitting...again you get this in any situation; some benefit, some lose. Currently the likes of Amazon, people who do food delivery etc are all raking it in, then you have the government for who the perfect situation is a country living in fear as it lets them pass any laws they want and restrict and remove any freedoms they want. So despite this situation getting closer and closer to destroying the entire economy, there are some actors who are selfishly promoting it. "The new normal" - f*** that phrase and f*** anyone who says it. The people promoting "the new normal" are pretending to be focussing on the public good but they're not, they're really just interested in the short-term financial gain this gives their companies without a care that it is a completely untenable situation, they're just making hay while the world burns.

Beyond the financial ramifications this extended lockdown and economic collapse is also wreaking havoc with people's mental health and their physical health. People who have thrived on all the benefits of the gym and regular exercise are now sat at home on their sofas drinking £4.99 bottles of wine, getting further from laughing at Jeremy Kyle and closer to appearing on it. A lot of people are being physically and mentally broken by this and that is also going to take time to recover.

We'll know what those in power really want when\if a vaccine comes along and we see how keen the government is to distribute it, to see who gets it. Will we start to see the left-wing media start to run their smear campaigns linking it with cancer\autism\dementia, not outright telling people not to take it but planting the seed for "Facebook moms" to run with. They brought back measles so can damn well bring this back too.

The final irony in all of this is that developing countries that have no way of mass-controlling their people are simply going to get on with it, get herd immunity and live their lives exactly as before, the old normal, while us in "developed" countries just accept that living in fear is the new normal with the government's boot pushing down on us harder and harder until none of us can breathe.
Wow, Aidy. Never though I would agree with you wholeheartedly and (IMO) you have hit the nail on the head with a lot of this post.
 
#54 ·
My conspiracy theory from March / April time was simpler. China has a huge ageing population problem, as we know, from 1 child family rules for decades. Wouldn't it be convenient if a virus occurred that disproportionately killed older generations, and the medically compromised, whilst leaving the majority of the working age population unaffected, or only mildly affected

Stu
 
#59 ·
@Aidy ,feel much the same as youve said in post #47 ( hashtag all numbers matter :samsmilie )
The private sector is being torpedoed repeatedly by the scamdemic jackboot ,its gonna flucking sink !! And god help us all then !
The body count for those who are suffering from lack of care in the mental health sector AND those not getting elective surgery /cancer diagnosis/treatment etc ad finitum ....will be not notified in the MSM ,unlike the " x amount died today WITH covid 19 " . You'd nearly think there is a plandemic at hand ,never let a good crisis go to waste scenario methinks .
If only a bag of cans would solve the woe .
 
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